Pakistan find themselves in a familiar situation, reminiscent of their 1992 World Cup glory, as they battle to secure a spot in the semi-finals. Babar Azam’s squad entered the 2023 World Cup with high hopes, boasting top-tier batsmen and a formidable pace attack. They kicked off with impressive victories against the Netherlands and Sri Lanka but then stumbled, suffering four consecutive defeats, an unprecedented streak for the Pakistani team in World Cup history. Now, the burning question on every fan’s mind is whether Pakistan can still clinch a semi-final spot.

In all honesty, Pakistan face an uphill struggle to turn their fortunes around, even if they secure wins against Bangladesh at Eden Gardens in Kolkata, New Zealand on November 4, or England on November 11 in their final group match. Even if they win all three remaining games, Pakistan can only accumulate a maximum of 10 points, a tally unlikely to secure a semi-final berth. Their fate hinges on how the remaining group stage matches unfold.

If Pakistan manages to win all three remaining games and amass 10 points, they must also rely on Australia, currently sitting fourth with eight points from six matches, to lose all three of their games against Afghanistan, England and Bangladesh. Pakistan would need Sri Lanka to lose at least two of their remaining three matches, against India, New Zealand, and Bangladesh. This would keep Australia on eight points and restrict Sri Lanka to no more than six. Another route to the semi-finals is if New Zealand stumbles significantly, as they also have eight points and cannot surpass ten if they lose two of their remaining three matches.

However, Afghanistan’s impressive victory over the 1996 champions in Pune has complicated Pakistan’s path even further. In addition to the scenarios mentioned, Pakistan desperately requires Afghanistan to lose two matches, against the Netherlands and South Africa, while defeating Australia by a margin that doesn’t surpass Pakistan’s net run rate. Therefore, Pakistan must not only win but also ensure that their margins of victory are substantial enough to maintain a positive net run rate by the end of the group stage.